Worked Scenario
2 nodes · situation (ufo)
A named counterfactual: a set of parameter perturbations, applied against a baseline regime over a stated horizon, together with the per-agency results it produces. It is a Situation because it is a configuration of the domain held for inspection — a state of affairs that obtains under stated assumptions rather than an entity or an event. Scenarios are corpus nodes rather than ephemeral tool output so that a projection carries provenance: what was assumed, which regime it baselines on, what code produced it, and when.
These are worked out in the corpus: each argues one change in prose, with the figures it produced committed beside it. To set the levers yourself, use Change the formula.
Nodes
| FSFP Cost Input Refresh vs. Freeze | What the Fair School Funding Plan pays on refreshed cost inputs against the FY2022 inputs H.B. 96 carried forward, at the same phase-in percentage. A simulation of the question the FY2026-27 budget actually turned on. |
|---|---|
| Phasing Out the Temporary Transitional Aid Guarantee | What Ohio's FY2027 model pays if the temporary transitional aid guarantee is removed or wound down — priced three ways, because a bill can leave its backstop standing, repeal it, or recompute it against a base that never held a guarantee. The department's own model, one lever moved. |
Properties
What a worked scenario may carry.
| Property | Type | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Name | string | Short name for the counterfactual |
| Question | text | The policy question this scenario is constructed to answer |
| Perturbations | text | Each parameter altered, its baseline value, and its scenario value |
| Input projections | text | Which input series were projected rather than observed, and by what method |
| Horizon | string | Fiscal periods covered by the run |
| Results in the repository | string | Path under crates/ to the committed per-agency delta output |
| Confidence | text | What the result is sensitive to, and where it should not be trusted |
| Results | text | The figures the run produced, as a table, with the units and the panel they are over |
Relationships
The edges this class may enter into. Out is declared by the node itself; in is declared by the node at the other end.
| Relationship | To | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Compared with out | Worked Scenario | Another counterfactual this one is set against, isolating one perturbation from another |
| Alters out | Formula Parameter | A parameter whose value this scenario alters |
| Projects out | Metric | A measure this scenario forecasts under its assumptions |
| Measured against out | Funding Regime | The regime the counterfactual is computed against |
| Runs over out | Fiscal Period | A fiscal period within the run's horizon |
| Priced by in | Draft Legislation | A draft whose provisions this run prices. Declared here as well as on draft-legislation because it changes what a scenario can be for: a counterfactual authored around a question the levers can express, and a run standing in for one clause of a bill somebody else wrote, are the same object serving two purposes, and only the second can be partial by construction. |